Beth Bernobich has an insightful post on judging a writer’s potential. If you haven’t read it, you really should.
I was going to follow up with my own thoughts on the subject but it turned into a rant on writing excuses. Read Beth’s post instead, because she really does nail the topic quite nicely.
[Crossposted from stonetable.org. If you'd like to comment, you can do so either here or there.]